Distribution system expansion planning in a deregulated environmentunder system uncertainties

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This paper presents a long-term distribution system planning model considering technical and economical constraintsusing Monte Carlo simulation. A proposed optimization model is applied to distribution system planning in a competitive environment. All network equipments including feeders, substation, intertie and DISCO-owned or SPP(Small Power Producer)-owned DGs in different technologies are included in this long term distribution system planning. Moreover, the planner experimental decisions are also considered in this planing. The proposed planning method considers not-supplied energy costs also. The uncertainavailability of the system components and uncertainty for demand forecast areseen as uncertain parameters. To manage uncertaininty, reliability requirments of the system is also considered in this method. Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate numerous scenarios based on the uncertaintiesin distribution system. To evaluate the ability of the proposed method, a typical 32 busesdistribution system is used for two environmental scenarios. Comparative results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed model and investigate the impact of existence of different energy sources in system operation and economics.

Keywords:Distribution System long-term planning, Distributed Generation, intertie, not-supplied energy, Monte-Carlo simulation

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