TÜRKİYE’DE TİCARİ DIŞA AÇIKLIĞIN CARİ AÇIK ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: EKONOMETRİK BİR ANALİZ

Mehmet Mercan
940 225

Öz


Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'deki ticari dışa açıklık ile cari işlemler açığı arasındaki ilişki, Pesaran vd. (2001) tarafından geliştirilen ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımıyla, 1992:Q1-2012:Q3 dönemi verileri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; dışa açıklık ile cari açık arasında, eş-bütünleşme olduğu, dışa açıklık oranındaki artışın, cari açığı arttırıcı bir faktör olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Hata düzeltme modelinde ise, uzun dönemde birlikte hareket eden seriler arasında kısa dönem sapmalarının ortadan kalktığı gözlenmiştir. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar teorik beklentilerimizi doğrulamaktadır.


Anahtar kelimeler


Dışa Açıklık,Cari Açık, Eş-bütünleşme Analizi

Tam metin:

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